Existing Scenario

Thimphu Municipal Corporation’s census that was conducted in year 2000 is taken as a base for all population studies, also involving the projection. The basic units for population data is the ward or zone that were formed by Thimphu Municipal Corporation in the year 2000. It is evident from the table below that approximately sixty - six percent of the total population lives in the areas of the Core, Motithang, Changzamtog and Hejo - Langjophaka, while the areas that were recently included in the city limits contribute to about thirty - four percent of the total population.

TABLE 5.1: Ward/ Zone Wise Population Distribution in Year 2000

Ward/ Zone	Areas	Population (Year 2000)	Population* (Year 2027)
1	Dechencholing, Taba, Jongshina	9,774	36,491
2	Zilukha, Hejo, Langjophaka	7,076	26,418
3	Motithang, Changangkha	8,801	32,858
4	Thimphu Core	5,428	20,265
5	Changzamtog, Chang Bangdu, Yangchenphug	6,615	24,697
6	Simtokha, Babesa	5,785	21,598
Thimphu		43,479	1,62,327

Source: Thimphu Municipal Corporation Census, 2000
*Projected Population assuming 5% Compound Increment in Population

The population of Thimphu is divided between the sexes as 23,308 males and 20,171 females. These figures exclude the embassies, IMTRAT, DANTAK, RBG, RBA, and the floating population in the city.

The city comprises of a number of old villages, many of which are characterized as traditional settlements. These Urban Villages are Dechencholing, Samteling, Jongshina, Hejo, Langjophaka, Zilukha, Chang Jiji, Lungtenphu, Simtokha and Babesa. These are the areas where the houses are old traditional designs and are located close to one another resulting in relatively dense population. Invariably, these areas are surrounded by sparsely settled residential areas.

The city also has fairly large institutional dwelling areas, housing a considerable population. They are the Royal Body Guards settlement in Dechencholing, the Royal Bhutan Police settlement in Changzamtog, the Royal Bhutan Army settlement in Lungtenphu, and the DANTAK settlement in Babesa. These areas are mentioned as ‘Endowment Zones’ in the ‘Proposals for actions’ of this document and are not considered for accommodation of future population.

As one would expect, the gentle slopes and flat areas are already developed and inhabited, the steeper slopes have orchards, along with residential development of low - density. Occasionally, the steeper slopes are dotted with Bagos, the biggest such area being Chang Gedaphu in Changzamtog.

Population Projection

Considering the population in year 2000 as the base and assuming 5% compound rate of growth of population, the projected population for the city is 1,62,327. The wards/ zones wise distribution is as mentioned in Table 5.1.

Carrying Capacity of Thimphu (Future Population Accommodation Capacity)

Considering the settlement pattern, concentration of population, environmental assets and geographical features of the valley, ‘Urban Villages’ would prove to be an appropriate unit for planning purposes, rather than the administrative ward or zone. Hence, while assessing the population accommodation capacity for the future, the basic planning unit applied is the Urban Village. As a basic unit of planning in the Structure Plan, sixteen Urban Villages have been identified. Conceptually, these units have amenities, basic services and convenience shopping core in their center, called Neighborhood Nodes, in this plan. These are surrounded by high-density walk-up apartments, then with a ring of medium - density towards the periphery and lower densities in very large orchard plots on the higher slopes.

The present population information is based on the wards or zones and not on the Urban Villages. Hence, to arrive at population figures for the Urban Village level, population at ward or zone level is distributed based on the number of residential structures and the number of floors they have, in those respective Urban Villages. The population (Year 2000) distribution in these Urban Villages, worked out on above principles is mentioned in Table 5.2.

For distribution of population in Urban Villages, all residential structures were taken in to account. They were classified in three categories viz. structures with only ground floor, structures with ground floor and one floor and structures with more than ground floor and one floor, as majority of residential structures are covered in these categories.

Total number of floors were counted in all Urban Villages and the population in the respective ward or zone was distributed in proportion of the number of (Residential) floors that Urban Village has.

The Future Population Accommodation Capacity of the city was calculated, based on the capacity of the Government owned lands, existing shrub lands and on the possibilities of horizontal and vertical infilling in residential areas.

Population Accommodation Capacity of Government owned lands

All lands that are owned by the government that lie within the city limits, whether fully developed, partly developed or vacant were considered to find their population accommodation capacity. The base for this study was data supplied by Thimphu Municipal Corporation. Based on the development that has already taken place on them, available area for future population accommodation was estimated and considered for calculations. As it can be observed from Table 5.3 that not all lands that are owned by the government can be used to accommodate future population due to environmental or physical constraints. Appropriate density (based on the study done on housing typology) was suggested to lands that can be put to residential use and their population accommodation capacity was worked out accordingly.

Population Accommodation Capacity of (Vacant) shrub lands

Lands that are covered by either shrubs or natural vegetation are identified and considered for their capacity to accommodate future population. The base for this study was the interpretation of aerial photography done in 1997 by Urban GIS Unit, DUDES, Ministry of Works and Human Settlements. Based on the environmental and physical constraints, appropriate use was suggested and population accommodation capacity was worked out accordingly. The occurrences where such lands fall under government ownership, they are not considered for calculation as they are accounted for while population accommodation capacity of government owned land was found out. The details can be referred to Table 5.5.

Population Accommodation Capacity of Residential Lands for Horizontal Infilling

Residential areas within the city limits were identified and the plot boundaries for the respective residences were assumed in absence of availability of cadastral information in this stage. The base for this study was the ground verification done by DUDES and TCC in July-August, 2001. The existing ground coverage for each such plot was worked out. Additional possible ground coverage was calculated with the assumption of maximum permitted ground coverage of 50% of the plot area. Predominant income group residing in the area and existing density was studied for proposing density for future. The population capacity was worked out accordingly. The details can be referred to Table 5.7.

Population Accommodation Capacity of Residential Lands for Vertical Infilling

Residential structures having only ground floor or having ground floor and one floor were identified and considered for possible vertical expansion, with the assumption of maximum floors to be four including ground floor. The base for this study was the ground verification done by DUDES and TCC in July-August, 2001. Additional area available for vertical infill was worked out separately for these two types of residential structures. To arrive at a realistic scenario, assumptions were made regarding the likelihood of this possible vertical expansion that was based on anticipated pressure on land due to the location and present trend of expansion and rebuilding. Finally, the population accommodation capacity was worked out accordingly. The details can be referred to Table 5.9.

Table 5.11 gives the details of total population that can be accommodated in Thimphu.

TABLE 5.2: Existing Population in Urban Villages
Urban Village (Periphery)	No. of Residential Buildings only with Ground Floor	No. of Residential Buildings with Ground Floor and First Floor	No. of Residential Buildings with more than Two Floors	Total No. of Floors	TCC Ward	% of Total Population of the Ward	Ward/ Zone Population	Urban Village Population	Urban Village Population (Rouned Off)
Babesa	89	23	17	186	6	30.79	5785	1781.47	1781
Simtokha	96	16	42	254	6	42.05		2432.76	2433
Lungtenphu	35	39	17	164	6	27.15		1570.76	1571
Chang Bangdu**	80	60	85	455	5	42.44	6615	2807.67	2808
Changzamtog**	80	60	85	455	5	42.44		2807.67	2808
Yangchenphug****	36	36	18	162	5	15.11		999.65	999
City Core	394	183	161	1243	4	100.00	5428	5428.00	5428
Changangkha	102	24	27	231	3	21.88	8801	1925.22	1925
Lower Motithang	141	85	31	404	3	38.26		3367.05	3367
Upper Motithang	129	86	40	421	3	39.87		3508.73	3509
Zilukha***	47	47	23	210	2	19.99	7076	1414.46	1414
Tashichho Dzong						22.61		1600.00	1600
Hejo - Langjophaka	116	83	107	603	2	57.40		4061.56	4062
Taba - Jongshina	32	41	81	357	1	58.62	9774	5729.59	5730
Dechencholing*	60	60	24	252	1	41.38		4044.41	4044
TOTAL							43479		43479
Notes:
* Building heights are not available for Dechencholing village, hence, it is assumed that 40% of total buildings are of only ground floor and 40% of total buildings are with ground and one floor with the rest being with more than two floors.
** Building heights are available in an integrated form for Changzamtog and Chang Bangdu Urban Villages. It is assumed that these two villages have equal number of buildings.
*** Building heights are not available for Zilukha Urban Village, hence, it is assumed that 40% of total buildings are of only ground floor and 40% of total buildings are with ground and one floor with the rest being with more than two floors.
**** Building heights are not available for Yangchenphug Urban Village, hence, it is assumed that 40% of total buildings are of only ground floor and 40% of total buildings are with ground and one floor with the rest being with more than two floors.
Number of people (Monks) residing in Tashichho Dzong: 1600 (Source: Dratshang Lhentshog-Mr. Kinley Dorji)

TABLE 5.3: Population Accommodation Capacity of Government Owned Lands.( Click to view the Table)

TABLE 5.4: Additional Population that can be Accommodated in Government Lands in Urban Villages

Sr. No.	Urban Village	Additional Population that can be accommodated
1	Babesa	8968
2	Simtokha	4829
3	Lungtenphu	63
4	Changzamtog	2010
5	Changangkha	0
6	Yangchenphug	4972
7	Chang Bangdu	3500
8	Core City	3608
9	Lower Motithang	610
10	Upper Motithang	865
11	Zilukha	451
12	Hejo - Langjophaka	1127
13	Taba - Jongshina	100
14	Dechencholing	9212
	Total	40315

 

TABLE 5.5: Population Accommodation Capacity of Existing Shrub Lands.(Click to view the table)

TABLE 5.6: Population that can be Accommodated in Existing Shrub Lands in Urban Villages:

Sr. No.	Urban Village	Population that can be accommodated
1	Babesa	4054
2	Simtokha	5616
3	Lungtenphu	567
4	Chang Bangdu	0
5	Changzamtog	0
6	Changangkha	65
7	Yangchenphug	0
8	Core City	0
9	Lower Motithang	0
10	Upper Motithang	0
11	Zilukha	0
12	Hejo - Langjophaka	0
13	Taba - Jongshina	1956
14	Dechencholing	5315
	Total	17573

 

TABLE 5.7: Population Accommodation Capacity of Existing Residential Areas for Horizontal Densification.(Click to view the table)

TABLE 5.8: Population that can be Accommodated in Existing Residential Areas in Urban Villages through Horizontal Densification

Sr. No.	Urban Village	Population that can be Accommodated
1	Upper Motithang	259
2	Lower Motithang	93
3	Changangkha	14
4	Yangchenphug	540
5	Lungtenphu	189
6	Simtokha	365
7	Babesa	114
8	City Core	166
9	Zilukha	197
10	Hejo - Langjophaka	176
11	Taba - Jongshina	29
12	Dechencholing	311
	TOTAL	2453

TABLE 5.9: Population Accommodation Capacity of Existing Residential Areas for Vertical Densification.(Click to view the table)

TABLE 5.10: Population that can be Accommodated in Existing Residential Areas in Urban Villages through Vertical Densification

Sr. No.	Urban Village	Population that can be Accommodated
1	Babesa	93
2	Simtokha	260
3	Lungtenphu	103
4	Chang Bangdu	0
5	Changzamtog	695
6	Changangkha	91
7	Yangchenphug	0
8	Core City	1898
9	Lower Motithang	380
10	Upper Motithang	101
11	Zilukha	0
12	Hejo - Langjophaka	125
13	Taba - Jongshina	157
14	Dechencholing	86
	Total	3989

TABLE 5.11: Total Population that can be Accommodated in Thimphu

Sr. No.	Urban Village	Additional population that can be accommodated				Total Additional Population that can be Accommodated	Existing Population	Total Population that can be Accommodated
		Government Lands	Existing Shrub Lands	Horizontal Densification in Existing Residential Areas	Vertical Densification in Existing Residential Areas
1	Babesa	8968	4054	114	93	13229	1781	15010
2	Simtokha	4829	5616	365	260	11070	2433	13503
3	Lungtenphu	63	567	189	103	922	1571	2493
4	Chang Bangdu	3500	0	0	0	3500	2808	6308
5	Changzamtog	2010	0	0	695	2705	2808	5513
6	Changangkha	0	65	14	91	170	1925	2095
7	Yangchenphug	4972	0	540	0	5512	999	6511
8	Core City	3608	0	166	1898	5672	5428	11100
9	Lower Motithang	610	0	93	380	1083	3367	4450
10	Upper Motithang	865	0	259	101	1225	3509	4734
11	Zilukha	451	0	197	0	648	1414	2062
12	Hejo - Langjophaka	1127	0	176	125	1428	4062	5490
13	Taba - Jongshina	100	1956	29	157	2242	5730	7972
14	Dechencholing	9212	5315	311	86	14924	4044	18968
15	Dzong Precinct	0	0	0	0	0	1600	1600
16	Royal Precinct	0	0	0	0	0	Not Applicable	0
17	Open Space Precinct	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Forest Precinct	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Endowment Precinct	0	0	0	0	0	Not Applicable	0
20	Institutional Precinct	0	0	0	0	0	Not Applicable	0
TOTAL		40315	17573	2453	3989	64330	43479	107809