Existing Scenario
Thimphu Municipal Corporation’s census that was conducted in year 2000 is taken as a base for all population studies, also involving the projection. The basic units for population data is the ward or zone that were formed by Thimphu Municipal Corporation in the year 2000. It is evident from the table below that approximately sixty - six percent of the total population lives in the areas of the Core, Motithang, Changzamtog and Hejo - Langjophaka, while the areas that were recently included in the city limits contribute to about thirty - four percent of the total population.
TABLE 5.1: Ward/ Zone Wise Population Distribution in Year 2000
| Ward/
Zone |
Areas |
Population
(Year 2000) |
Population*
(Year 2027) |
| 1 |
Dechencholing,
Taba, Jongshina |
9,774 |
36,491 |
| 2 |
Zilukha,
Hejo, Langjophaka |
7,076 |
26,418 |
| 3 |
Motithang,
Changangkha |
8,801 |
32,858 |
| 4 |
|
5,428 |
20,265 |
| 5 |
Changzamtog,
Chang Bangdu, Yangchenphug |
6,615 |
24,697 |
| 6 |
Simtokha,
Babesa |
5,785 |
21,598 |
| |
43,479 |
1,62,327 |
|
The population of Thimphu is divided between the sexes as 23,308 males and 20,171 females. These figures exclude the embassies, IMTRAT, DANTAK, RBG, RBA, and the floating population in the city.
The city comprises of a number of old villages, many of which are characterized as traditional settlements. These Urban Villages are Dechencholing, Samteling, Jongshina, Hejo, Langjophaka, Zilukha, Chang Jiji, Lungtenphu, Simtokha and Babesa. These are the areas where the houses are old traditional designs and are located close to one another resulting in relatively dense population. Invariably, these areas are surrounded by sparsely settled residential areas.
The city also has fairly large institutional dwelling areas, housing a considerable population. They are the Royal Body Guards settlement in Dechencholing, the Royal Bhutan Police settlement in Changzamtog, the Royal Bhutan Army settlement in Lungtenphu, and the DANTAK settlement in Babesa. These areas are mentioned as ‘Endowment Zones’ in the ‘Proposals for actions’ of this document and are not considered for accommodation of future population.
As one would expect, the gentle slopes and flat areas are already developed and inhabited, the steeper slopes have orchards, along with residential development of low - density. Occasionally, the steeper slopes are dotted with Bagos, the biggest such area being Chang Gedaphu in Changzamtog.
Population Projection
Considering the population in year 2000 as the base and assuming 5% compound rate of growth of population, the projected population for the city is 1,62,327. The wards/ zones wise distribution is as mentioned in Table 5.1.
Carrying Capacity of Thimphu (Future Population Accommodation Capacity)
Considering the settlement pattern, concentration of population, environmental assets and geographical features of the valley, ‘Urban Villages’ would prove to be an appropriate unit for planning purposes, rather than the administrative ward or zone. Hence, while assessing the population accommodation capacity for the future, the basic planning unit applied is the Urban Village. As a basic unit of planning in the Structure Plan, sixteen Urban Villages have been identified. Conceptually, these units have amenities, basic services and convenience shopping core in their center, called Neighborhood Nodes, in this plan. These are surrounded by high-density walk-up apartments, then with a ring of medium - density towards the periphery and lower densities in very large orchard plots on the higher slopes.
The present population information is based on the wards or zones and not on the Urban Villages. Hence, to arrive at population figures for the Urban Village level, population at ward or zone level is distributed based on the number of residential structures and the number of floors they have, in those respective Urban Villages. The population (Year 2000) distribution in these Urban Villages, worked out on above principles is mentioned in Table 5.2.
For distribution of population in Urban Villages, all residential structures were taken in to account. They were classified in three categories viz. structures with only ground floor, structures with ground floor and one floor and structures with more than ground floor and one floor, as majority of residential structures are covered in these categories.
Total number of floors were counted in all Urban Villages and the population in the respective ward or zone was distributed in proportion of the number of (Residential) floors that Urban Village has.
The Future Population Accommodation Capacity of the city was calculated, based on the capacity of the Government owned lands, existing shrub lands and on the possibilities of horizontal and vertical infilling in residential areas.
Population Accommodation Capacity of Government owned lands
All lands that are owned by the government that lie within the city limits, whether fully developed, partly developed or vacant were considered to find their population accommodation capacity. The base for this study was data supplied by Thimphu Municipal Corporation. Based on the development that has already taken place on them, available area for future population accommodation was estimated and considered for calculations. As it can be observed from Table 5.3 that not all lands that are owned by the government can be used to accommodate future population due to environmental or physical constraints. Appropriate density (based on the study done on housing typology) was suggested to lands that can be put to residential use and their population accommodation capacity was worked out accordingly.
Population Accommodation Capacity of (Vacant) shrub lands
Lands that are covered by either shrubs or natural vegetation are identified and considered for their capacity to accommodate future population. The base for this study was the interpretation of aerial photography done in 1997 by Urban GIS Unit, DUDES, Ministry of Works and Human Settlements. Based on the environmental and physical constraints, appropriate use was suggested and population accommodation capacity was worked out accordingly. The occurrences where such lands fall under government ownership, they are not considered for calculation as they are accounted for while population accommodation capacity of government owned land was found out. The details can be referred to Table 5.5.
Population Accommodation Capacity of Residential Lands for Horizontal Infilling
Residential areas within the city limits were identified and the plot boundaries for the respective residences were assumed in absence of availability of cadastral information in this stage. The base for this study was the ground verification done by DUDES and TCC in July-August, 2001. The existing ground coverage for each such plot was worked out. Additional possible ground coverage was calculated with the assumption of maximum permitted ground coverage of 50% of the plot area. Predominant income group residing in the area and existing density was studied for proposing density for future. The population capacity was worked out accordingly. The details can be referred to Table 5.7.
Population Accommodation Capacity of Residential Lands for Vertical Infilling
Residential structures having only ground floor or having ground floor and one floor were identified and considered for possible vertical expansion, with the assumption of maximum floors to be four including ground floor. The base for this study was the ground verification done by DUDES and TCC in July-August, 2001. Additional area available for vertical infill was worked out separately for these two types of residential structures. To arrive at a realistic scenario, assumptions were made regarding the likelihood of this possible vertical expansion that was based on anticipated pressure on land due to the location and present trend of expansion and rebuilding. Finally, the population accommodation capacity was worked out accordingly. The details can be referred to Table 5.9.
Table 5.11 gives the details of total population that can be accommodated in Thimphu.
TABLE 5.2: Existing Population in
Urban Villages
|
|||||||||
| Urban Village (Periphery) |
No. of Residential Buildings
only with Ground Floor |
No. of Residential Buildings
with Ground Floor and First Floor |
No. of Residential Buildings
with more than Two Floors |
Total No. of Floors |
TCC Ward |
% of Total Population of
the Ward |
Ward/ Zone Population |
Urban Village Population |
Urban Village Population
(Rouned Off) |
| Babesa |
89 |
23 |
17 |
186 |
6 |
30.79 |
5785 |
1781.47 |
1781 |
| Simtokha |
96 |
16 |
42 |
254 |
6 |
42.05 |
2432.76 |
2433 |
|
| Lungtenphu |
35 |
39 |
17 |
164 |
6 |
27.15 |
1570.76 |
1571 |
|
| Chang Bangdu** |
80 |
60 |
85 |
455 |
5 |
42.44 |
6615 |
2807.67 |
2808 |
| Changzamtog** |
80 |
60 |
85 |
455 |
5 |
42.44 |
2807.67 |
2808 |
|
| Yangchenphug**** |
36 |
36 |
18 |
162 |
5 |
15.11 |
999.65 |
999 |
|
| City Core |
394 |
183 |
161 |
1243 |
4 |
100.00 |
5428 |
5428.00 |
5428 |
| Changangkha |
102 |
24 |
27 |
231 |
3 |
21.88 |
8801 |
1925.22 |
1925 |
| |
141 |
85 |
31 |
404 |
3 |
38.26 |
3367.05 |
3367 |
|
| |
129 |
86 |
40 |
421 |
3 |
39.87 |
3508.73 |
3509 |
|
| Zilukha*** |
47 |
47 |
23 |
210 |
2 |
19.99 |
7076 |
1414.46 |
1414 |
| Tashichho Dzong |
|
|
|
|
|
22.61 |
1600.00 |
1600 |
|
| Hejo - Langjophaka |
116 |
83 |
107 |
603 |
2 |
57.40 |
4061.56 |
4062 |
|
| Taba - Jongshina |
32 |
41 |
81 |
357 |
1 |
58.62 |
9774 |
5729.59 |
5730 |
| Dechencholing* |
60 |
60 |
24 |
252 |
1 |
41.38 |
4044.41 |
4044 |
|
| TOTAL |
43479 |
|
43479 |
||||||
| |
|||||||||
| Notes: |
|||||||||
| *
Building heights are not available for Dechencholing
village, hence, it is assumed that 40% of total buildings are of only
ground floor and 40% of total buildings are with ground and one floor
with the rest being with more than two floors. |
|||||||||
| **
Building heights are available in an integrated form for Changzamtog
and |
|||||||||
| ***
Building heights are not available for |
|||||||||
| ****
Building heights are not available for |
|||||||||
| Number
of people (Monks) residing in Tashichho Dzong: 1600 (Source: Dratshang
Lhentshog-Mr. Kinley
Dorji) |
|||||||||
TABLE
5.3: Population Accommodation Capacity of Government Owned Lands.( Click to
view the Table)
TABLE 5.4: Additional Population that can be Accommodated in Government
Lands in Urban Villages
| Sr. No. |
Urban Village |
Additional Population that can be accommodated |
| 1 |
Babesa |
8968 |
| 2 |
Simtokha |
4829 |
| 3 |
Lungtenphu |
63 |
| 4 |
Changzamtog |
2010 |
| 5 |
Changangkha |