4.0 DEMOGRAPHIC STUDIES AND PLANNING STANDARDS

4.1 POPULATION PROJECTION  

Population projection is one of the most essential aspects in the preparation of a structure plan. The success of the entire exercise is pivoted on the correctness of the population projection. The complexity of the urban network is very closely knit with the size of population, and as a generalized statement one can say a larger population implies a higher degree of urbanization. However, it’s not only the size of population, but also the complexity in the layers of services that define the degree of urbanization. Yet again the number of services provided is linked to the scale of economies which are in turn supported by the size of the population. For any service to be provided there must be a “threshold” of users to support it. A small population can only support a very limited range of services. Likewise low “ability to pay” for services is a limiting factor. As the users per service grow, so the range of services can also expand! Thus, it would not be wrong to summarize that the services to be provided for the present, as well as the future, if to be sustained in the long run will have to be in accordance with the number of users. The attempt to define the number of users in the future is the exercise of population projection.

Equally important is the “ability to pay” of users. If users have a low expenditure capability, even a large population can not “pay for” even essential services unless they are highly subsidized. A developing economy needs to invest in quality, long term economic infrastructure, which generate s more growth. A country can go bankrupt subsidizing services.

The population projection is based on a number of parameters which include physical, social, cultural, economical, functional, political, social, cultural, historical and other such aspects at micro, macro and regional scale. The population of a geographic area grows, or declines, through the interaction of just three variables: fertility, mortality, and migration. Although approaches may differ, the assumptions used to produce population projections are based on expert opinion informed by current conditions, past trends, and theories about why and how much fertility, mortality, and migration are likely to change. The fertility and mortality have a lot of socio-cultural and natural environment bearings attached to it. To bring a change in their percentages needs some time and hence is quite gradual. However, the factor of migration can make a drastic change in the entire process of population projection and especially in the present day context one needs to study this factor with a greater attention.