SCENARIOS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF GELEPHU

The following potential scenarios were assumed for the projection of population of the town.

Scenario 1: Projecting the population of Gelephu with the existing growth rate of population under the assumption that the future development in the region will not have profound effects on the population growth of the town.

Scenario 2: Projecting the population of the town with a minimal required increase in migration, created as a result of induced economic activities/ employment/investment in the region towards optimum use of space available in the town and in its immediate surrounding.

Scenario 3: Projecting the population of the town with a major increase in the migration initiated by major investments in the region and resulting highly induced economic activities/employment/investment in the region towards intensive utilization of spaces in the town and in the region.

The first alternative examined for the development of Gelephu assumes that the future development in the town will continue with the present philosophy and attitude towards planning and population growth. The following assumptions are made with respect to this scenario:

The policies towards the development of the town shall not be much altered which would have a major effect on the demographic character of the town.
The population growth of the town shall follow the trend of the past two decades incorporating the corrections relevant to the present condition of the town in terms of additional provision of infrastructure, amenities, facilities and security. The changes in rate of fertility and mortality of the country due to the presence of higher level of health facilities will also be incorporated in this method.
The employment growth and pattern shall remain the same following the past trends.
The developmental activity in the region shall not have profound effects on the town, particularly in terms of its demographic characteristics.

In this scenario the population growth of the town, is projected (1) by considering the past trend of population growth in the town and (2) by assuming that the population growth of the town in the future will be a simple compound rate of increase.

In order to calculate the past trend of population growth of Gelephu, the population count of day scholars in the junior and middle secondary schools, from the base population data of 2002, are not accounted, in order to avoid double counting in the town population figures. Further, the population of civil servants and their dependants were considered separately and the growth trend of this sector is calculated separately. The population figure of the town is less accurate, since the existing population is calculated by multiplying an average household size of five people with the number of legal water connections provided by the Gelephu Municipal Corporation inside the municipal limit. There would clearly be households without any individual connection, and those with illegal connections.

From the available data the town population and the civil servant population has grown at a compound growth rate of 4.25% and 6.25% per annum between 1986 and 2002 respectively. The higher growth rate of the civil servant population in Gelephu is due to the increased concentration of army and police personnel in the town during the past decade. At this same time the urban growth rate of Thimphu stood at 5% per annum. Assuming that the present trend of population growth continues in Gelephu and considering that both the town and civil servants population will grow at same growth rate, the population of the town would be 28,623 by the year 2025.

Considering the present situation prevailing in the region and the inbuilt advantages of the town, together with the proposed infrastructure developments in the town, one can assume that Gelephu, in future, could grow in relation to the national average urban growth rate of 5% per annum. With respect to the above said assumptions the projected population for the town is as mentioned in the table below.

The base population considered for projection is 8,464 for the town population and 2,077 for the civil servant and their dependant population during the year 2002, derived from the Urban Sector Programme Support, Pre-Feasibility Study conducted by the Department of Urban Development and Engineering Services for the Gelephu urban area during January 2003.

Table 4.3 : Summary of the Population Growth in Gelephu according to Scenario - 1

Year	Population projection with current 4.25% Compound Growth Rate	Population projection with 5% Compound Growth Rate
2005	11,943	12,203
2010	14,706	15,574
2015	18,108	19,877
2020	22,298	25,368
2025	27,456	32,377

The Gross Residential Density of the Gelephu Municipal Limit for the year 2025 would be between 52 and 59 persons per hectare.

The existing extended municipal limit shall remain the same without any extension into the nearby areas of the town.
The aggressive dynamism of development in the region would be absent in the town.
The town would have low residential density, low population as well as limited activities.
The spaces in the town would be under utilized without optimizing the land economics.
The maintenance of physical infrastructure would be difficult, as it is today, resulting in meager source of income of the local body.
The importance of the place within the given context of regional geography and physiographic character would not be comprehensively and advantageously used to attract and generate resources for the nation’s growth.
The socio-economic profile of the town would remain predominantly characterized by low- and middle-income households.

The second alternative focuses on optimal utilization of the land available in the town, by minimally inducing growth and the required migration into the Gelephu town by planned economic activities in the region. The following assumptions are made for this scenario.

The new industrial estate proposal in the Jigmeling area will start functioning and will induce migration into the region.
The dry port development in the town will be promoted to facilitate export and import activities in the region and Gelephu will be established as a port of entry into the kingdom.
Fulahari will be developed as a religious nerve centre of the Central-Southern region.
Positively development of the image of Gelephu will be continued by the government towards attracting investments and population concentration.
Economic activities and regional level institutional development in the town will be promoted considering the locational importance of the town.
Space in the town will be utilized optimally and the land use distribution will be similar to that of an average town’s of similar size in economically developed countries.
Gelephu will be up-graded into a Dzongkhag Headquarters.

The population growth of Gelephu is projected; (1) by assuming that the population of the town in the future will grow with a compound rate derived from the past trends and applying corrections with respect to the present situations and development activities in the town; and (2) by assuming that the developmental activities in the region will have effects on the demographic status of the town by inducing the factor of migration into the town.

For the purpose of projecting the population of the town in this scenario two methods are adopted. In the first method the amount of migration that will be induced by the new developmental activity is considered. In the second method, population growth of a similar kind of town identical in terms of its location, physiographic character and developmental activities with Gelephu is studied to find out the possible trend of growth in the town.

In the first method, to derive the amount of migration induced due to the assumed developmental activities, such as the proposed industrial estate, dry–port, Fulahari religious center, and regional level institutions in the area, certain case studies were considered. Through these case studies an attempt has been made to derive the quantity of employment per net acre of development generated. From this number of generated employment the possible population increase is calculated, which in turn is used to assume the amount of migration in the town. The case study includes : (1) the proposed industrial estate at Pasakha, Bhutan and (2) Employment density study prepared for the south California region during October 2001.

The proposed industrial estate at Pasakha, Bhutan, though accommodates few heavy industrial development, is primarily proposed to attract small and medium scale industrial development. From the application submitted to the Ministry of Trade and Industries for the establishment of industries in the estate, which specifies the land area requested for the establishment and expected employees the establishment will accommodate, an average of 14 employments per acre will be generated. However, it is expected that most of the industries will be allocated lesser land area than they have requested, which in due course will result in higher employment density per net acre in the proposed industrial estate. As a second case study the employment density study conducted by The Natelson Company Inc, for the Southern California Association of Governments during October 2001 is analyzed. The research conducted by the Natelson Company suggests an average employment density of 18 persons per net acre for light manufacturing industries, 30 persons per net acre for heavy industries and 11.5 persons per net acre for warehouses and port activities. Though the study was not carried out in Bhutan, the relative scarcity of land in Bhutan is expected to lead to comparable or sometime even higher employment per acre ratios.

With respect to the above study findings and in order to project the future population of Gelephu, the following assumptions were made:

An average of 18 employments for small and medium scale industries, 30 employments for heavy industries, and 11 employments for ware houses, per net acre of development would be created.
The proposed industrial estate would constitute 30% of heavy industrial development and 70% of small and medium scale industrial development.
The growth of the industrial estate would occur in an equally phased manner and would reach its full extent of growth by 2025.
The distribution of employees among the level would be 10% managerial, 50% skilled, semi-skilled and 40% un-skilled.
60% of total proposed industrial estate development would be net developable area.
A minimum of 40% to 50% of total migration population induced by the industrial development would reside in Gelephu, because of the availability of higher level of infrastructure facilities and social services.
An average of three to four dependents are considered per employee for the purpose of calculating the migration population.
The population growth of the town would increase by 1% to 1.5% in addition to the existing annual growth rate, considering the economic, infrastructure and religious and institutional development activities proposed in the town and in its immediate surroundings.

The base population of the town for future projections, and the current annual population growth rate, are as considered in the population projection of Scenario-1.

Table 4.4 : Summary of the Population Growth in Gelephu according to Scenario – 2

Year	Population projection with 5.50% Compound Growth Rate (an addition of 1.25% with current growth rate)	Population projection with 6.0% Compound Growth Rate (an addition of 1. 75% with current growth rate)	40% of total migration population induced by the proposed industrial estate	50% of total migration population induced by the proposed industrial estate
	A	B	C	D
2005	12,378	12,555	-	-
2010	16,177	16,801	5,832	7,290
2015	21,143	22,483	11,664	14,580
2020	27,633	30,088	17,496	21,870
2025	36,115	40,264	23,328	29,160

The population of Gelephu will be in between 59,443 and 69,424 during the year 2025 with an average Gross Residential Density of 107–125 persons per hectare in the Gelephu Municipal Limit. These low and high estimates are calculated by adding the low ranges of A and C, and the high ranges of B and D respectively.

In order to check the accuracy of the projected population of the town in this scenario, an alternative method of studying the population growth of a similar kind of town to Gelephu is adopted. For this reason, Phuentsholing town which had a population of 12,024 during 1981 (close to the population of Gelephu in 2002) is considered and the past 20 years of population growth of the town is studied. The location, character, urban dynamics, demographic character and then developmental activities which took place in the town could be easily compared to the present day Gelephu. The population surveys and studies carried out, for the preparation of urban development plan for Phuentsholing, by the National Urban Development Corporation of Bhutan in association with the United Nation’s Centre for Human Settlements (Habitat) during 1986-87, is considered as base for this case study. It could be noted at this point of discussion, that Gelephu today, offers much better opportunities for development than Phuentsholing did twenty years earlier, with new proposed development activities like industrial estate, dry port and International airport. Moreover, the “ Bhutan” of a quarter century back did not have the capacity of the Bhutan of today!

The population of Phuentsholing during 1971 and 1981 was estimated as 6,970 and 12,024 respectively. A growth of 5,052 people at a compound growth rate of 5.85% per annum characterized this time period. The population survey carried by NUDC in association with UNCHS (Habitat) during 1986 counted 16,307 persons with an annual compound growth rate of 6.30% between 1981 and 1986. The population growth of the town in this fifteen years time surpassed the average annual urban growth rate of the nation which was 4.4%, as well as other urban centers of Bhutan. The factors of the pivotal role of Phuentsholing in the overall development of Bhutan, as a parent town, or as a nucleus for trade and commerce for the entire region, as the entrance gateway to the Kingdom of Bhutan for people and goods entering the country and the large inflow of goods, equipment and consumer supplies in to the region. These factors, in addition to the employment opportunities created in the growing commercial and industrial economy of the town can be well attributed as the major reasons for such a high population growth rate in the town. All the reasons for the high population growth of Phuentsholing twenty years ago are the reality of the present in Gelephu.

One may argue that Phuentsholing is the staging centre for the capital city of Thimphu and for major hydro electric projects in Western Bhutan, but this can be off-set by the fact that much of the trade and commerce which could have been accommodated in Bhutan has shifted across the border in the adjacent Indian settlement of Jaigoan.

During the time of the preparation of Urban Development Plan, the population of the town for the year 2001 is projected in two ways. In the first scenario the population growth of the town is assumed to be low and slow with the annual growth rate reducing from its current growth rate of 6.30 to 4.80 equally after every five years. In the second scenario the population is assumed to grow in a high and rapid pace with an annual compound growth rate of 6.38%.

The population projection of the town for the year 2001 in scenario one and two were 36,105 and 41,235 respectively, which corresponds with the projected population of Gelephu for the year 2025, excluding the migration population induced by the industrial estate. It should be noted that the proposed industrial development in Pasakha near Phuentsholing is a new phenomenon and the population which will be induced by this is not considered during the population forecast done in 1986.

Gelephu will be developed as a one of the highly potential urban areas in the country.
There will be a need to increase the municipal limits of the town as a response to population increase.
There will be optimum utilization of the land, physical and social infrastructure of the town.
The financial base of the town will increase.
The local body will have well defined roles and responsibility, as well as powers to mobilize resources.
The competitiveness of Gelephu for urban development will increase.
Land will be used as a resource and generator of income in the town.
The employment opportunity, the standard of living, and socio-economic status of the town will improve.
Major Indian companies will set up manufacturing and assembly units in Gelephu. New Bhutanese companies will emerge.

The third scenario assumed for population projection, focuses on rapid increase of population due to increased migration created as a result of highly induced economic activities/ employment/ investment in the region towards intensive utilization of spaces in the town and in the region. The following assumptions are made for this scenario :

The entire Gelephu region shall be marked as a Special Economic Zone. Infrastructure facilities and polices towards attracting foreign investments in the region will be implemented.
The International airport, which is under conceptualization by the Ministry of Information and Communications, will be created.
The Sibsu-Daipham National Highway would be constructed as proposed. A transportation hub shall be developed in the region integrating all the transportation system. Gelephu shall function as a south central entrance gateway to the Kingdom of Bhutan. A dry port and container centre will be constructed.
Gelephu will be developed as one of the identified Growth Centers of the country provided with higher level educational, health and cultural facilities catering to the entire region.
Economic zones will be created in the region.
The entire region will be developed into a booming market place and an economic backbone of the kingdom.
A rail head from India will enter the new Industrial Estate.
The Structure Plan and Local Area Plans will be implemented.

A separate body to control the development in the entire region will be established which will hold the rights of regulating development in the region.
The building bye-laws and development regulations will be revised towards extensive use of available lands to its fullest potential.
New systems of development options like floor space index in the precincts will be introduced in the town.
New investments for development in the region will be given high priority.

As a result of the all the assumed intense economic activities induced in the region, there will be a manifold increase in the migration rate into the region. Gelephu being the major urban centre of the region would attract larger migratory population than any other settlement in the region. The population of Gelephu by the year 2025 as a result of the highly induced migration ratio would be around 70,000 to 90,000.

The socio-economic profile of the town and the villages of the region will be improved.
The town will become a highly dynamic entity with multiple fields of excellence to thrive at all times.
The Municipal limit of Gelephu will be extended to accommodate the additional population.
The region will become as an economic backbone of the country.
The purchase power of the town inhabitants will increase.
Land and infrastructure services of the town will be optimally utilized.
Additional population will generate additional revenue for the maintenance of the same infrastructure.
The newly developed lands will attract many economic activities, which will facilitate growth of the economy, provide more employment opportunities, increase affordability, improve quality of life and hence sustain the life in the town.
There will be an increase in the number of vehicles and industries and this will increase pollution in the region.
The importance of the town in the regional geography will increase.
A spectrum of global multi-nationals will set up shop in Gelephu.
New Bhutanese companies will emerge and begin assembly/ manufacturing in Gelephu.