4.2 POPULATION PROJECTION METHODS

A number of methods are available in the literature for population projections. Each has certain advantages and disadvantages, and the availability of data and the characteristics of the area under study primarily determine their use. Some of these methods are discussed below for the purpose of population projections of Gelephu.

TREND ANALYSIS METHOD

A city is assumed to have its own internal dynamics, largely insulated from the external forces. The trends observed in the past are therefore taken as indicators of the future. The statistical method of curve fitting belongs to this category. For a steady growth rate the Linear Projection Method is used. If there is a constant increase in growth rate the Exponential Curve Projection Method is used. Similarly the Modified Exponential Projection method is used when the town is showing a declining pace of growth rate after approaching an upper capacity limit. This method is more suitable for cities and towns which are not likely to be affected by any foreseen, or unexpected drastic change in its growth pattern.

INDUCED RATE OF GROWTH

In this case, the population is projected on the basis of the employment opportunities which are likely to grow on the basis of past trends, as well as due to committed proposals and the expected proposals likely to be sanctioned. In this method there is a need to conduct a close study of the induced activity and the effects that it can cause especially in terms of the secondary and tertiary level of opportunities that it can create and their economic implications. This will also include the additional possibilities of economic activities depending upon the availability of resources within the region. If the feasibility and impact study of the activity to be induced is not done properly this method can lead to absolutely misguiding final figures and create chaos in the actual development process.

AREA RATIO METHOD

This method proceeds on the assumption that the ratio of population and its area of a city have a correlation with the ratio of population and its area of a city with similar city functions already built in the past. The trends of the change in the population growth of the older city is studied and based on the study the population projection for the latter city is done. As mentioned earlier, since this method of population projection pivots around comparative analysis of the two towns, it becomes very important to first identify as many parameters of comparison between them and then try to study the similarities and differences between the towns based on the identified parameters. The parameters of comparison would include physical, social, cultural, economical, functional, political, social, cultural, historical and other such aspects at the micro, macro and the regional scale. The success rate of this population projection method would mainly depend on the degree of similarities between the outcomes of the comparison of the identified parameters between the two cities.